智商可预测 未来试管婴儿将可选择"最聪明的"胚胎

中国日报网

　　如果有一天，你能选择生育一个小“牛顿”，还可以生育一个智力一般的小孩，你能做出哪些的选择？据生物学家预估，将来十年内，人们将能够 应用试管婴儿技术选择“最聪慧”的胚胎。

Genetics research， conceptual artwork。 CHINA DAILY

　　Couples undergoing IVF treatment could be given the option to pick the “smartest” embryo within the next 10 years， a leading US scientist has predicted。

　　据美国一名权威性生物学家预估，将来十年以内，做试管婴儿的夫妻将可以选择“最聪慧”的胚胎。

　　IVF：in vitro fertilization 试管婴儿协同胚胎移植技术，又被称为“试管婴儿”

　　Stephen Hsu， senior vice president for research at Michigan State University， said scientific advances mean it will soon be feasible to reliably rank embryos according to potential IQ， posing profound ethical questions for society about whether or not the technology should be adopted。

　　美国密歇根州立高校负责人科学研究的副校徐道辉（史蒂芬·徐）说，科学研究发展代表着人们没多久就可以对胚胎的潜在性智力得出靠谱的得分，此项技术是不是应当应用将是一个刻骨铭心的社会发展伦理问题。

　　Hsu’s company， Genomic Prediction， already offers a test aimed at screening out embryos with abnormally low IQ to couples being treated at fertility clinics in the US。

　　徐道辉的基因组预测分析企业早已为在美国不孕不育诊所接纳医治的夫妻提供了一项测试服务，致力于筛查出智力出现异常低的胚胎。

　　“Accurate IQ predictors will be possible， if not the next five years， the next 10 years certainly，” Hsu told the Guardian。 “I predict certain countries will adopt them。”

　　徐道辉对《卫报》新闻记者说：“精确的智力预测分析是很有可能的，即便并不是将来五年内，那麼在未来十年内也毫无疑问能够 。我预估一些我国会听取意见此项技术。”

　　The prospect of a new generation of genetically selected babies has prompted concerns about unintended medical consequences and the potential for deepening existing social inequalities。 The science underpinning the claim that intelligence can be meaningfully predicted by genetic tests is also contentious。

　　新一代基因选择宝宝的市场前景引起了大家针对出现意外医疗不良影响和目前社会发展不公平很有可能加重的忧虑。基因检验可以合理预测分析智力的科学研究技术也引起了异议。

　　contentious [kən‘tenʃəs]：adj。有质疑的，造成争执的

　　Peter Donnelly， a professor of statistical science at the University of Oxford， said any such IQ predictions should be treated with “huge caution”， adding： “I have grave misgivings about it on ethical grounds。 I think it’s a really bad idea。”

　　剑桥大学应用统计学专家教授约翰·唐纳利说，应当“十分慎重”地看待该类智力预测分析。他说道：“出自于伦理道德缘故，我对于此事十分忧虑。我觉得这是一个十分槽糕的念头。”

　　Since the 1990s， couples undergoing IVF have been able to screen their embryos for mutations in single genes that cause serious diseases such as cystic fibrosis， as well as conditions like Down’s syndrome， caused by chromosome abnormalities。

　　自上世纪90年代至今，接纳试管授精的夫妻早已可以对她们的胚胎开展挑选，以发觉单独基因的突然变化，这种突然变化会造成比较严重的疾病，例如囊性纤维化，及其染色体出现异常造成的唐氏综合症等。

　　chromosome [‘krəʊməsəʊm]：n。染色体

　　Many other traits， including height， physical appearance， intelligence and disease susceptibility， are known to be partly heritable。 But because the genetic component is spread thinly over hundreds or even thousands of DNA regions， it has previously been impossible to screen for these traits。

　　很多别的特点，包含个子、容貌、智商和疾病易感基因，都被觉得是一部分遗传的。但因为遗传成分稀疏地分散化在百余乃至数千个DNA地区，之前不太可能对这种特点开展挑选。

　　In the past decade， as vast genetic databases have been established， this picture has changed。 Through analyzing many genes， each making a tiny contribution， it has been possible to calculate what are called polygenic risk scores， which give a perso n’s likelihood of getting a particular disease or having a certain trait。

　　过去的十年里，伴随着很多基因数据库查询的创建，这类状况早已发生了更改。根据剖析很多基因，每一个基因都做出了细微的奉献，就会有很有可能测算出说白了的多基因风险性得分，即一个人患某类特殊疾病或具备某类特点的概率。

　　polygenic[，pɔli‘dʒenik]：adj。多基因的

　　Genomic Prediction is the first company to take embryo screening into this grey area of risk forecasting， offering to alert couples if an embryo has an “outlier” score for risk of cancers， diabetes， heart disease， dwarfism or low IQ。

　　基因组预测分析企业是第一家将胚胎筛查列入风险性预测分析这一黑色地带的企业。假如胚胎在癌病、糖尿病、心肌梗塞、侏儒症或智力不高等风险性层面的得分“出现异常”，它便会提示做筛查的夫妻。

　　outlier [‘aʊtlaɪə]：n。（统计分析）出现异常值

　　Medical staff put clothes on the newborn test-tube baby at a hospital in Xi‘an， Northwest China’s Shaanxi province。 [Photo/Xinhua]

　　Prediction for IQ is not good enough to give a reliable ranking， but Hsu said that knowing an embryo has a low score could still be desirable。

　　智力预测分析现阶段还不能得出靠谱的得分，但徐道辉表明，假如一个胚胎的智力得分较低，大家很有可能還是很想要知道。

　　“Maybe the bottom 1% embryo will grow up to be a great person … even be a scientist， but the odds are against it，” he said。 “I honestly feel if we can calculate that score and find a real negative outlier there’s an ethical responsibility for us to report that。”

　　徐道辉说：“或许得分最少的1%的胚胎长大以后会变成一个成功的人……乃至变成一名生物学家，但这类概率不大。我确实感觉，如果我们能测算出这一得分，发觉它低得十分出现异常，那麼大家就会有社会道德义务给予告之。”

　　The company projects that once high-quality genetic and academic achievement data from a million individuals becomes available， expected to be within five to 10 years， it will be able to predict IQ to within about 10 points。

　　该企业预估，在5至十年内，一旦一百万人的高品质基因和学术研究造就数据信息能用，它将可以预测分析智力，偏差在10分之内。

　　Hsu is reticent about whether screening for high intelligence would be ethically justified， saying： “Let me just decline to answer that at the moment。”

　　徐道辉不肯评价智商高筛查是不是合乎伦理道德标准，说“现阶段我拒绝回应这个问题”。

　　reticent [‘retɪs（ə）nt]：adj。缄默的；有保存的

　　In some countries， such as Singapore， there is likely to be a high level of public acceptance and demand for such tests， he suggested。 “I think the overwhelming majority would say yes， absolutely， parents should be allowed to do that，” he said。 “Before you write your piece， you might just want to think that a billion people on the other side of the world might have a different view。”

　　徐道辉说，在一些我国，例如新加坡，群众对该类检验的接受程度和要求很有可能会很高。他说道：“我觉得绝大部分人毫无疑问会赞同容许爸爸妈妈那样做。在你写这篇报导以前，或许应当想一想地球上此外一端的十亿人很有可能有不一样的观点。”

　　Whether such tests will become available in the UK would depend on approval from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority （HFEA）。

　　这类检验方式可否在美国执行将在于美国人工授精与胚胎学管理处的准许。

　　“If the HFEA decides that it’s not right for the UK， I will respect that，” Hsu said， but predicted that “rich people from the UK will fly to Singapore” if they are unable to get the tests locally。

　　他说道：“假如美国人工授精与胚胎学管理处觉得这对美国不适合，我能重视这一决策。”但他预测分析，假如美国有钱人没法在本地开展此项检验，“她们能飞到新加坡去做的。”

　　Some in the UK take the view that prospective parents have a right to access such tests。 “I don’t think people should be deprived of that knowledge，” said Prof Simon Fishel， the founder of Care Fertility。

　　在美国，一些人觉得将来的爸爸妈妈有权利开展该类检验。生育关爱机构的创办人西蒙借卵费舍尔专家教授说：“我觉得不应该夺走大家的这类自主权。”

　　Fishel questioned whether there is any ethical difference between picking an embryo ranked highest for IQ or sending a child to a private school。 “What’s wrong with ranking an embryo if you can rank a child？” he said。 “I think there are plenty of people who’d choose embryo Oxford [rather] than embryo A-level failure。”

　　费舍尔提出质疑选择智商最高的胚胎和送孩子去民办学校中间是不是存有伦理道德上的差别。“假如你能给孩子得分，那给胚胎得分又有哪些错呢？”他说道。“我觉得有很多人会选择将来能报考剑桥的胚胎而不是没法根据美国初中高級水准考試的胚胎。”

　　In practice， though， couples often have only a few embryos to choose from。 And there are concerns about unintended consequences。 For instance， there is some evidence linking higher polygenic scores for academic ability to higher likelihood of autism。

　　但事实上，夫妻们一般 仅有好多个胚胎可供选择。除此之外，大家还担忧会出現出乎意料的不良影响。比如，有直接证据说明，学术研究工作能力的多基因评分越高，患儿童自闭症的概率就越大。

The technology is controversial， but that does not mean it will not gain acceptance in the future， Hsu said， drawing parallels with the reaction to IVF in its early days。

　　徐道辉说，此项技术存有异议，但这并不代表着它在未来不容易被接纳，这与初期大家对试管婴儿的反映相近。

　　“The IVF pioneers … were called monsters， Frankenstein doctors； it was predicted that these babies would have health problems，” he said。 “I am actually reassured by that。 IVF is completely normalized now。 Everyone who is pointing their finger at [Genomic Prediction] now should go back and read those arti cles。”

　　他说道：“试管婴儿的先行者被称作妖怪，弗兰肯斯坦医生。那时候大家预测分析这种宝宝会出现健康难题。事实上，我对于此事很安心。试管授精如今早已彻底世界多极化。如今，全部斥责（基因组预测分析）的人都应当回来读一读这些文章内容。”

责任编辑：张申